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Political Death Trap

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Political Death Trap
Mr Mpuuga on Friday unveiled a new political organisation | Thomas Kitimbo

Starting a political party in Uganda is fraught with challenges. The nation’s political landscape is heavily dominated by entrenched interests, powerful leaders, and a culture shaped by the ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM).

Despite this, disillusioned politicians often leave their parent parties to form new movements, hoping to carve out a space for alternative voices.

The latest in this long line of breakaways is Parliament Commissioner Mathias Mpuuga, who is reportedly considering forming a new party after disagreements within the National Unity Platform (NUP).

Mpuuga’s potential move highlights the recurring trend of political splintering in Uganda.

Mike Mabikke, who left the Democratic Party (DP) to create the Social Democratic Party (SDP), has experienced the difficulties of maintaining relevance post-breakaway.

Mabikke asserts that while SDP faces challenges, it remains committed to transformative change, a sentiment echoed by many who take the leap into forming new political entities.

A History of Breakaways

Political splits are not new in Uganda. Retired Col. Dr. Kizza Besigye famously departed from the NRM in 2001, citing ideological differences and dissatisfaction with President Museveni's leadership.

His formation of the Reform Agenda and later the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) demonstrated that breakaway parties could challenge the ruling government, but his journey also underscored the systemic obstacles faced by opposition leaders.

Others followed in Besigye’s footsteps. Mike Mabikke and Beti Kamya established the Uganda Federal Alliance (UFA) after leaving the DP, while General Mugisha Muntu, a former NRM stalwart and FDC president, formed the Alliance for National Transformation (ANT) after disagreements within the FDC.

Though these movements began with promise, many have struggled to maintain visibility and gain widespread voter support.

Political analysts Haruna Kanaabi and Dr. John Paul Kasujja argue that many of these breakaway parties suffer from strategic and structural weaknesses. Often born out of personal grievances or factional disputes, these movements lack clear, resonant ideologies.

Without a unifying vision, they struggle to sustain public interest or build robust constituencies.

Yusuf Sserunkuma, a political observer, notes that the proliferation of breakaway parties often fragments the opposition, inadvertently benefiting the NRM.

Uganda’s political system, rooted in President Museveni’s movement structure from the 1980s, discourages strong opposition.

While the Constitution allows citizens over 18 to form political parties, the more than 20 registered parties rarely translate into significant political influence.

Rising Movements

With the 2026 elections on the horizon, the formation of new political parties, including Mpuuga’s potential venture, is raising questions about the future of Uganda’s opposition.

Can these movements galvanize voters and offer a credible alternative, or will they merely join the ranks of struggling splinter groups?

Observers are divided. While some hope that breakaway efforts can reinvigorate the opposition, others point to historical failures and systemic barriers as indicators of their likely fate.

For now, the political landscape remains dominated by the NRM, with breakaway parties facing an uphill battle to remain relevant in Uganda’s competitive and often unforgiving political arena.

Whether these new movements can overcome historical challenges and unify the opposition remains to be seen.

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